February 2012
General Aviation
  • General Aviation Predictions for 2012
  • 1 February 2012

  • By Johan de Villiers

  • With the start of 2012 upon us, it is always a worthwhile exercise to look ahead to see what trends in global aviation might emerge in the coming year. On the gloomy side of things, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has predicted weaker profitability for global airlines. Looking ahead to 2012, IATA downgraded its central forecast for airline profits from $4.9 billion to $3.5 billion for a net margin of 0.6 percent even as passenger demand is expected to increase.

    This is attributed to the current crisis in the Eurozone to resolve the sovereign debt crisis and a potential global recession depressing the outlook even further.

    Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director-General and CEO, estimated the global aviation industry could suffer losses exceeding $8 billion in 2012, in a worst case scenario, should the Eurozone crisis evolve into a full-blown banking crises and European recession. The losses could potentially eclipse the financial meltdown of 2008, if this should come to fruition. Although the U.S. economy has also grown at a faster pace than Europe, the recent bankruptcy filing of American Airlines indicates the region faces intense competitive challenges as well.

    Regionally, European carriers are by far in the most challenging position. Higher passenger taxes and weak home market economies have limited profitability in Europe.

    On the positive side of things industry experts are reporting an unprecedented demand for commercial planes despite the worldwide cutbacks in defence spending. Looking at some of the new aircraft programs that are heading towards certification, there is a clear indication that the trend is towards well financed, large company projects, that involves larger commercial jets.

    It seems that smaller turboprops and jets are not attracting any new investor money or interest and may face even greater challenges going forward attracting market share. The only contrast to this is Honda who continues to back the often delayed HondaJet program and Cessna that always seems to find a market niche for their Citation jets. To substantiate this view, already two additional single-engine jet programs are being cancelled this year, being the Piper Altaire and Cirrus Vision. It was very interesting to see that not a single Western investor wanted to purchase the remains of Cirrus, before it was sold to China’s Caiga last year. Knowing the Chinese, they will probably focus their energy on the piston market for now, but it remains to be seen if they continue with the Vision jet program.

    Few corporations in today’s world would send any of their top executives on a single engine jet, when twin-engine jets are available for very little extra money. It was probably this reason, and not the lack of owner-buyers, that killed the Piper’s Altaire. Coincidently, the Altaire was still promoted heavily at last year’s NBAA show following an extensive redesign. Although it promised fairly good performance, the price tag of USD 2.5 million put it very close to some of its twin-engine competitors.

    On the positive side of things, the one single-engine jet program nearing entry into service is Diamond’s D-Jet. After finding a new Middle East investor, Diamond has rehired its engineering staff and till this day, the D-Jet remains the nearest single-engine jet to certification and may yet make it into service. If that happens, the aviation industry will find out if there is indeed a market for single-engine jets.

    Another prediction for 2012 is that Boeing is expected to release its first new generation of passenger-flying planes, the 747-8 Intercontinental jumbo jet. Should these aircraft be successful, there will be increased innovation in the development of these planes.

    Boeing faces stiff competition from Airbus, that already has more orders lined up for 2012, than it’s competitors.

    Supersonic Flight: Dream or Reality?

    Without sounding like a pessimist, the aerospace historically has been historically intolerant of cutting edge technology when it comes to certifying an aircraft that is intended to carry commercial passengers.

    The issue is that the more technologically advanced the aircraft is, the faster the curve climbs for the amount of money needed to ensure safety, reliability and efficiency. There are currently no supersonic business jets with a price tag of under USD 80 million!

    So the question begs if there enough development money to support any supersonic business jet program through to production. Our sources predict that there is an increase in capital investment in new projects in the private space industry such as the Stratolaunch.

    The Stratolaunch is another joint project from Scaled Composites, Burt Rutan’s aircraft company based in the Mojave Desert in California and Paul Allan, co-founder of Microsoft. Scaled Composites produced the world’s first private space craft, the White Knight One.

    Other supersonic jet programs include HyperMach Aerospace’s SonicStar HyperMach CEO, Richard Lugg, says the SonicStar will be capable of Mach 3.6 speeds and fly at an altitude of 60 000 ft. According to HyperMach, the propulsion system would be 30% more fuel efficient than the engine (Roll Royce 593) used in the Concorde.

    At this point in time, it is planned to be powered by two 54,700 thrust SonicBlue S-MAGJET (Supersonic-Magnetic Advanced Generation Jet Electric Turbine) hybrid supersonic 4000-X series engines. Any sonic boom is planned to be avoided through electromagnetic drag reduction technology, eliminating the infamous hallmark of the Concorde predecessor.

    This would mean a 2:20 hr flight time from New York to Dubai, much quicker than the Supersonic Aerospace QSST or the Aerion SSBJ for its twenty passengers in "VVIP luxury accommodation."

    So in summary, the prediction for 2012 is that the majority of investment will flow into large-cabin, ultra-long-range jets, super-midsize jets and some lighter jets and turboprops.

    These are all fairly normal airplane designs, and it has been proven time and again that these airplanes with improvements in performance, comfort and operating costs over their predecessors are far more successful in the aviation marketplace in the long run, than any new or revolutionary designs.

    Only time will tell!